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ThoughtFarmer published a must-read article on the New Laws of Intranet ROI. It discusses how the mathematical models used to describe social network effects have evolved over time.
For the less mathematically inclined, you can skip ahead to their summary of the changes. The new thinking on how to evaluate the impact of a social network (emphasis by ThoughtFarmer) is to:
This is excellent advice. And it might help to explain why we’ve found that the most successful Enterprise 2.0 roll-outs tend to be bottom-up, emergent efforts.